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  • Volume 6, Issue 2

Climate change related increase of storminess near Hel Peninsula, Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland

Grzegorz R. Cerkowniak, Rafał Ostrowski, Piotr Szmytkiewicz
Published June 2015, 6 (2) 300-312; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.013
Grzegorz R. Cerkowniak
Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IBW PAN), Kościerska 7, 80-328 Gdańsk, Poland E-mail: grzegorz.cerkowniak@ibwpan.gda.pl
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Rafał Ostrowski
Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IBW PAN), Kościerska 7, 80-328 Gdańsk, Poland E-mail: grzegorz.cerkowniak@ibwpan.gda.pl
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Piotr Szmytkiewicz
Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IBW PAN), Kościerska 7, 80-328 Gdańsk, Poland E-mail: grzegorz.cerkowniak@ibwpan.gda.pl
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Abstract

The paper deals with the growing threat of erosion to the south Baltic coast, caused by the intensification of a wind-induced wave climate and sea level rise, which is expected to continue until 2100 as a result of climate change. In the analysis, a deep-water wave prognostic point is located about 13 km north-east of the Hel Peninsula, situated in the NW part of the Gulf of Gdańsk. The study comprises the analyses of wind velocity, storm surge, wave height, wave set-up and wave run-up. A significant predicted increase in wave heights during extreme storms, compared with the wave climate reconstructed for 1958–2001, combined with anticipated higher storm surges, is expected to result in a lower resilience of the sea shore to erosion and flooding. Although nourishment operations conducted along the open sea shore of the Hel Peninsula have proved efficient and successful, nourishment needs will have to be adequately recalculated in future to ensure sufficient protection of this coastal segment.

  • climate change
  • Gulf of Gdańsk
  • storm surge
  • wave climate
  • wind
  • wind climate
  • First received 21 February 2014.
  • Accepted in revised form 31 August 2014.
  • © IWA Publishing 2015
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Journal of Water and Climate Change: 9 (1)
  Volume 6, Issue 2

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Climate change related increase of storminess near Hel Peninsula, Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland
Grzegorz R. Cerkowniak, Rafał Ostrowski, Piotr Szmytkiewicz
Journal of Water and Climate Change Jun 2015, 6 (2) 300-312; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.013
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Climate change related increase of storminess near Hel Peninsula, Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland
Grzegorz R. Cerkowniak, Rafał Ostrowski, Piotr Szmytkiewicz
Journal of Water and Climate Change Jun 2015, 6 (2) 300-312; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2014.013

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Keywords

climate change
Gulf of Gdańsk
storm surge
wave climate
wind
wind climate
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