Based on the direct correlation method, this paper analyzes the correlation of sunspot number (SSN) and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) ridge index with flood/drought disasters in the Second Songhua River (SSHR) basin, combined with long sequences of SSN, WPSH ridge index, precipitation and other data. Results show that SSN is clearly correlated with flood/drought disasters, what is more, flood years mainly appear in three phases: Solar Maximum Year, years after Solar Maximum Year and Solar Minimum Year. In addition, there is an alternate change of flood/drought with a 10-year cycle. This paper uses the commensurable method to identify the periods of floods and droughts in the study area. According to the commensurable diagram, catastrophic nodes of the future floods or droughts in SSHR basin can be primarily predicted as follows: 2021 will be a flood year, while 2013, 2016 and 2024 will be high flow years; 2012 and 2022 will be dry years, while 2014, 2018 and 2027 will be low flow years. Moreover, forecast accuracy of flood/dry years is higher than the one of high/low flow years. Prediction of flood/drought has an error of ±1 year, which can be tracked and corrected with a scatter diagram.
- disaster prediction
- flood/drought disasters
- sunspot number
- the Second Songhua river basin
- First received 24 March 2014.
- Accepted in revised form 6 November 2014.
- © IWA Publishing 2015