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Assessing potential flood vulnerability to climate change by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models: case study of the 2011 Thailand great flood

S. Supharatid, T. Aribarg, S. Supratid
Available Online 5 June 2015, jwc2015116; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.116
S. Supharatid
Climate Change and Disaster Center, Rangsit University, Pathumthani 12000, Thailand
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T. Aribarg
Climate Change and Disaster Center, Rangsit University, Pathumthani 12000, ThailandDepartment of Information Technology, Rangsit University, Pathumthani 12000, Thailand E-mail: supratid@yahoo.co.th
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S. Supratid
Climate Change and Disaster Center, Rangsit University, Pathumthani 12000, Thailand
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Abstract

The 2011 monsoon season was exceptionally heavy, leading to extensive and long-lasting flooding in the Chao Phraya river basin. Flooding was exacerbated by rapid expansion of urban areas into flood plains and was the costliest natural disaster in country's history, with direct damages estimated at US$ 45 billion. The present study examines the flood behavior in 2011 and flood impact from changing climate. Two generations of the global climate model (GCM), ensembles CMIP3 and CMIP5, are statistically downscaled through historical 20th century and future projections. The majority of GCMs overestimate the dry spell (in June and July) and underestimate the peak precipitation (in May and September). However, they can simulate the mean precipitation reasonably well. Use of the Multi Model Mean shows continuously increased precipitation from near-future to far-future while the Multi Model Median shows increased precipitation only for the far-future. These findings in changing precipitation are assessed by flood simulation. With several adaptation measures, flood in the lower Chao Phraya river basin cannot be completely avoided. One of the best practices for a high flood risk community is to raise the house with open space in the first floor. This is promoted as one resilient approach in Thailand.

  • 2011 great flood
  • CMIP3
  • CMIP5
  • hydrologic model
  • First received 12 January 2015.
  • Accepted in revised form 10 April 2015.
  • © IWA Publishing 2015

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Journal of Water and Climate Change: 9 (1)
  Volume 9,issue 1

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Assessing potential flood vulnerability to climate change by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models: case study of the 2011 Thailand great flood
S. Supharatid, T. Aribarg, S. Supratid
Journal of Water and Climate Change Jun 2015, jwc2015116; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.116
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Assessing potential flood vulnerability to climate change by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models: case study of the 2011 Thailand great flood
S. Supharatid, T. Aribarg, S. Supratid
Journal of Water and Climate Change Jun 2015, jwc2015116; DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.116

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Keywords

2011 great flood
CMIP3
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hydrologic model
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